Did My Fears about a Joe Biden Presidency Come True?

 After the election in 2020, I reflected on what I feared would happen during the first Trump administration and tried to evaluate which fears came true and which did not. I wished I had written down my fears at the beginning of the administration instead of making the list in hindsight, and I encouraged conservatives to do that: Make a list of things you’re worried will happen during a Biden administration so you can evaluate at the end of it if those fears came true. 

Nobody really took me up on it. One friend made some vague claims about Hunter Biden, China, and Ukraine. When pushed for details, they gave a little more, indicating they feared that Biden would lead the country into socialism in the style of China. “China owns Biden,” they claimed, and they feared we were headed toward communism.

That’s not a lot to go on, but I’ll include it in my reflection for this year. Here are the things I remember people fearing would happen during the Biden administration, and my takes on which of those predictions were true. I acknowledge that this might be a bit of a strawman since I didn't have many of these fears, so I’m coming up with this list from an outside perspective. If you think any of these are wrong or you think something should be added to the list, please let me know. 

Things people feared would happen under Biden: 

– Gas prices would skyrocket, significantly increasing personal and commercial travel costs

– Deficit spending would devalue the dollar and cause financial catastrophe

– Joe Biden would use his political influence to support the business ventures of his son, Hunter

– China’s influence in the United States would increase

– Government would seize the means of production and initiate a socialist regime

– The second amendment would be repealed and/or large scale private arms confiscation would happen

– Abortion rights would be expanded, and abortion rates would increase

– The southern border would be completely opened and a flood of immigrants would spread violence, drugs, and disease around the country

– Joe Biden would be slow to respond to major security threats due to his age and mental condition 

TL;DR - here are the results of my analysis. I’m not a political scientist or investigative journalist, but this is where I land personally on the question of whether conservative fears about Biden were valid. 

• Gas Prices - Fear Upheld 

• Deficit Spending / Economic Catastrophe - Fear Unfounded

• Political Corruption - Inconclusive

• China Influence - Fear Unfounded 

• Socialism - Fear Unfounded

• 2nd Amendment - Fear Unfounded

• Abortion - Fear Unfounded 

• Immigration - Fear Preposterous

• Biden’s Brain - Fear Unfounded 

Analysis

Gas prices

After a historic drop in gas prices caused by the pandemic, gas prices did increase to record high levels during the Biden administration. 

It is very difficult to prove that Biden policies are to blame for these increases. Oil markets are complex and international, and it would be shocking (and probably bad) to see prices stay as low as they were in 2020. It’s interesting to compare and contrast gas price trends with the trends during the Obama and Trump administrations. Obama inherited then-record-high gas prices from Bush. Those prices came down under Obama and then steadily increased to new record highs that remained steady for most of his administration. In the last few Obama years, prices came down. Gas prices in 2016 and 2020 were historically low. And prices increased and then decreased during both 2016-2020 and 2020-2023. The decreases at the end of each (Trump’s and Biden’s) were at a similar rate. The increases during the Biden administration were much higher than during the Trump administration. Why? I don’t think we can be sure. But I admit that gas prices increased under Biden. 

Verdict: Fear upheld. 

Deficit Spending

Deficit spending peaked during the pandemic–something I don’t blame either party for. 

Deficit spending during the Biden administration decreased from pandemic levels and then gradually increased, remaining higher than deficit spending during the Trump years. What was the impact on the economy? 

Inflation reached record lows during the pandemic, and shot up domestically and globally in its aftermath, but inflation rates were not correlated with deficit spending. As spending increased in 2023 and 2024, inflation went down. 

Furthermore, the U.S. inflation rate decreased more rapidly than many other countries after dramatic global increases in 2021 and 2022. 

Employment rates recovered quickly in the Biden economy, recovering to the nearly full-employment rates prior to the pandemic. Wage growth has been consistently high under Biden. GDP has consistently increased. We haven’t had a post-pandemic recession as some predicted, nor any other major economic shock. 

There are certainly ways in which I hope the economy will improve (I’m looking at you, housing market), but by and large, Joe Biden’s spending did not result in economic catastrophe. I know that “are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?” was a Trump rallying cry that contributed to his reelection. But the perception it generated is a false narrative about how the economy is going. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded. 

Political corruption / Hunter Biden 

Back in August, the House Ways, Means, Oversight, and Accountability committee published a conveniently timed 291-page impeachment inquiry report, detailing the most complete case for Biden corruption to date. House Speaker Mike Johnson did not take it to the house floor–likely because he knew he didn’t have the votes necessary to successfully impeach the president. 

The report alleges that the Biden family used the Biden name as a means of influencing foreign businesses to work with them. If true, these allegations wouldn’t be unprecedented, but would be concerning, especially if they lead to foreign policy actions that favor those foreign businesses, and worst if those foreign policy actions are contrary to American interests. 

In my opinion, the best logical case against Biden in the impeachment inquiry is the allegation that Biden pressured Ukraine to fire prosecutor Victor Shokin because he was prosecuting Burisma–an energy company where Hunter Biden sat as a board member when Joe Biden was Vice President. If it’s true that Biden threatened to withhold aid unless Ukraine fired Shokin, that would be a foreign policy action influenced by the Biden family business dealings. 

But Shokin was not actively investigating Burisma and Biden’s actions were in line with U.S. policy and the policy of several other western nations. 

Still, it’s possible that some or all of the inquiry’s allegations are true. If so, Biden’s misdeeds are concerning if ultimately non-impactful. Honestly, the impeachment process is a mess, and holding presidents accountable seems like it’s going to get harder, even more based solely on the number of Republicans or Democrats in seats–not on what the actual facts are. 

Verdict: Inconclusive. 

China Influence

Biden continued much of Trump’s policy on China, but lowered some of the weapons of the trade war, still restricting (sometimes more than his predecessor) chinese trade. But has China’s influence in the U.S. changed at all? U.S. opinions remain unfavorable for china. 

This graph below shows the U.S. trade deficit with China over the last 10 years, by billions of dollars and percent of GDP:

The largest jump in the U.S. / China trade deficit was in 2020 under president Trump, likely influenced by the pandemic which disrupted supply chains and forced a lot of countries to increase their reliance on China. Trump also waged a trade war with China, which contributed to the relative decline in the trade deficit over most of his first term. 

So Chinese influence in the U.S. did increase under Biden, but it’s hard to link specific Biden policies to that increased influence. And what some people mean when they say that Democrats will increase China’s influence in the U.S. is that they will spread communism or socialism in America, so let’s evaluate that next. 

Verdict: Fear Unfounded, but to be continued below

Socialism 

I’ll start with my verdict, because this is an easy one. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded. 

Government did not seize the means of production, abolish private property, and initiate a new socialist regime. If when you say you fear increasing Chinese influence, you mean that you fear the U.S. will become like China as a communist country, go back to the previous section and mark it “fear unfounded.” 

I want to get to some data measuring whether we moved at all toward more government control of private industry, but first, I want to get something off my chest. 

I’m a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, a church that, for a time, experimented with communal living, where private property was surrendered to church authorities who redistributed it to members of the community according to their wants. For a time, church members who refused to participate in this project were threatened with eternal damnation. When I first learned about this, I thought “oh! Like communism!” and in doing so I really stepped in something! It turns out that Latter-day Saints are VERY insistent that the law of Consecration and the United Order WERE NOT COMMUNISM. They were voluntary. They maintained a framework for private property, and they centered on devotion to God. 

And I hear you, saints, I hear you. But you cannot have it both ways! If the law of consecration and the United Order were not communism or socialism, then neither–for sure–are any of the policies implemented under Barack Obama or Joe Biden. If you want to say Democrats or socialist, then you MUST say that so was Joseph Smith, and so was Brigham Young. If you don’t like that labeling of the prophets, then you must stop this nonsense about socialism in modern America. 

Okay some data. The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank and the pro-Trump advocacy organization behind “Project 2025” rates the United States under President Biden “mostly free” and ranks the U.S. 25 out of 184 countries evaluated for overall economic freedom. They rank America under Biden 95.1% free in terms of property rights. For context, this is the Heritage Foundation. They hate Joe Biden. In their “scores over time” graph, they try their darndest to make Biden look bad by making the scale 70-90 instead of 0-100: 

But that kind of backfires when you isolate the Property Rights variable: 

According to the Heritage Foundation data, the Biden Administration has garnered the highest freedom in terms of property rights since they started evaluating. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded.

2nd Amendment / Gun confiscation 

The 2nd Amendment has not been repealed, and there has been no gun confiscation program under Biden. 

Biden did sign the first major gun safety legislation in 30 years. The law prevents domestic abuse perpetrators from purchasing guns, allows groups to petition courts to confiscate guns from individuals who pose a threat to themselves or others, and expands background checks for potential gun owners ages 18-21. The NRA opposes it, but it’s moderate action to say the least. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded. 

Abortion rights expanded, abortion rates increased

Abortion rights were further limited under Biden due to the overturning of Roe V Wade by the supreme court, helped along by Trump’s appointees to that court. Despite increased restrictions, the abortion rate went up. None of this has had much to do with Biden. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded. 

Immigration and its effects

Authorized immigration has rebounded to around pre-pandemic levels after huge drops in immigration in 2020. Unauthorized immigration also increased during the biden administration. 

But the numbers are not much different than immigration statistics during the Trump administration, in which there were moderate declines in unauthorized immigration. 

On border policy, Biden kept Trump’s policy of expelling migrants and asylum seekers at the border for a few years, then shifted to policies that pushed migrants toward legal pathways when possible. He reversed the policy of separating families at the border and has successfully reunited some–but not all–families who were separated under Trump. 

As far as the negative consequences of immigration–legal or otherwise–the idea that immigrants hurt Americans couldn’t be further from the truth. Every population has its stinkers, but immigrants commit far fewer crimes per capita than native-born citizens. There are serious issues with drug trafficking, human trafficking, and healthcare in America and in the world, but (forgive me again for getting up on my soapbox) these problems are not the fault of immigrants and foreigners. There is only one meaningful category of human when it comes to our commitment to treat others with respect, and that is the category of child of God. 

If there are problems in other countries, those are our problems too. We are all in this world together. We cannot escape

And we need to stop the over simplistic arguments about these issues. A conservative friend on Facebook recently explained his position on immigration by saying that “everyone would want to immigrate to America if given the chance. We simply don’t have room for everyone.” Both of these statements are flatly false. Don’t flatter yourself: not everyone wants to move to America. And even if they did, we could find room for them all over time. And big ideas like reducing our reliance on foreign trade are impossible unless population rates increase faster than birth rates. WE NEED IMMIGRANTS. It makes me immensely sad that they have been demonized so badly, even at the highest levels. 

Verdict: Fear preposterous 

Joe Biden’s responsiveness to security threats

I speak publicly for a living, and I coach other professional presenters, and I can say with confidence that Joe Biden is not a great public speaker. He has struggled with a stutter since childhood. He’s calm and even handed when listeners want a little fire. He has a talented speech writing team, and he shines interpersonally. He is well liked on both sides of the aisle in government–even by his fiercest critics. But he’s no Barack Obama or Ronald Reagan at the mic. And that’s okay. I don’t need my president to be eloquent or free of verbal foibles. 

But have his shortcomings on the stage been symptoms of broader neurological problems, and have those problems put  the U.S. at risk of being unprepared for security threats? I can’t truly answer the first part of that question, and I’m left to trust the reported opinion of his doctors, who have declared him mentally fit. But I can evaluate the outcomes of Biden’s responses to urgent matters in the nation. Here are a few examples: 

• In May of 2021, a cyber attack on the Colonial Pipeline threatened the nation’s energy security. Within a week, Biden was able to guide the crisis to resolution, and he signed an executive order to improve U.S. cybersecurity. His response has been similar for other cybersecurity events. 

• At the start of the 2022 Ukraine Crisis, Biden was quick to call President Zelenski and coordinate aid. 

• In the days following Hurricane Helene, Biden mobilized support for victims and approved $2.1 Billion in aid. 

There’s plenty of room for disagreement about how Biden handled each of these and other crises. But none of these responses demonstrate negative consequences of the president’s mental inadequacy. That doesn’t even mean, necessarily, that Biden isn’t mentally weak as a president. Rather, it may just be a testament to the institution of the Executive Branch, including the bureaucracy that allows it to function smoothly. The Biden administration is not just Joe Biden, and it was never intended to be. 

Verdict: Fear unfounded 

Biden Conclusion: 

After evaluating all these fears, the trend I’ve seen emerged is this. Some of the things conservatives feared would happen under Biden, did in fact happen, but the negative impacts they feared did not. 

My fears for a second Trump Term

This time, I’m not going to forget this step. Here are the things that I’m afraid will happen under a Trump presidency. In 4 years, I’ll evaluate how founded these fears were. 

• Tariffs will dramatically increase costs in the U.S. and lead to economic decline.

• Mass deportations will forcibly remove hundreds of thousands of immigrants, of both legal and non-legal status, from their homes, causing great suffering. 

• A nationwide abortion ban will leave thousands of women without life-saving healthcare, and will unjustly prosecute women and healthcare providers as criminals. 

• Reduced support of the Federal Government for Education will eliminate programs my family relies on to support my kids’ education. 

• False doctrines, including biblical inerrancy, young earth creationism, and Christian nationalism will be taught in public schools.

• The free exercise of non-Christian religion will be infringed. 

• Americans who rely on Affordable Care Act-based healthcare will lose access to healthcare. 

• Checks and balances in government will be removed to an unprecedented degree, granting the Executive branch almost completely unchecked power.

• Marriage equality will be eliminated.

• Gender affirming care for trans people will be banned.

• U.S. institutions will be weakened to the point where we are reliant on the mental capacity of the president to respond to crises. 

• Trump will undo environmental protections and efforts to reduce CO2 emissions, accelerating climate change.

• Laws will be enacted to suppress voting rights, making republican victories more likely in the future. 

• If there is major military action, the Fox News morning show host leading the Department of Defense will mismanage it, leading to unnecessary casualties.